NEWS

Pundit’s Pick: Championship

MLR Commentator and Kickoff host, Pete Steinberg, looks ahead to Sunday’s final and dives into the head-to-head matchup. Read his thoughts below.

This game is exciting to watch and I expect that this will be decided at the margins, with small differences in each area of the game being the difference between winning or losing.

Why San Diego Should Win:

The Legion comes in with the best defense in the league and they use their pressure to create turnovers, which their skilled backs can turn into try-scoring opportunities. I really like the way Rob Hoadley has built their defense. They are very aggressive with their launch, are physical in the tackle, and they contest at every ruck. That contest is critical because it slows down the attacking ball and gives defenders the time to provide the width so the defensive wall is wide enough to not make it easy to go around. While most teams use their #7 as the key to slowing down the ball, it is JP du Plessis at center who is critical in the tackle contest for San Diego.

The Legion attack space where it is available, however most often they use Joe Pietersen’s boot to play territory. They even play Pietersen at fullback on defense so he can counter-kick when a team is kicking from their own line. Playing in the other team’s end works when you can pressure them. While their defense is still formidable, their scrum has become less effective. In fact, both NOLA and RUNY have put the Legion under pressure at the scrum. That will be an area of concern when they come across Seattle’s league-dominant scrum.

Why Seattle Should Win:

While the Legion boasts five forwards in the top 15 most dominant tacklers in the league, Seattle is one of the few teams that can match them with physicality in the pack. Naikatini, Tucker, Manoa, and Duechle all can lay the wood, and most importantly they are better ball runners and can get over the gain line. They need to use their athleticism and power to get beyond the tackler to minimize San Diego’s contest. If they do that, they have the service of JP Smith and the decision making of Shalom Suniula to create space for Hassler, Staller, and Turner on the outside.

Seattle has the edge in the set piece. They should have the edge in the scrum and have used that against most opponents to create penalties. They should also have the edge in the lineout that can be important if San Diego does not solve their penalty issues. Defensively, they have one of the best lineout defenders in Brad Tucker, and the Legion did not make good decisions against the RUNY lineout last weekend.

Key Factors to Watch:

• Seattle handling errors in contact – if they can hold on to the ball the Legion are liable to give away a penalty.
• Legion Territory – if the Legion can keep Seattle within their half they will keep finding scoring opportunities.

Who Will Win:

Maybe the toughest pick of the season. Both teams have difference makers, both have good systems in place. It is the Legion’s home field advantage vs the Seawolves finals experience. It is going to be close, but I think being at home will be the difference and San Diego will win 25-24…as long as they keep getting the bounce of the ball.