The bottom of the table hosts the surprise package of the season as the winless New England Free Jacks welcome Anthem RC to Veterans Memorial Stadium. The three-time defending champions have started 0-3 and just suffered the heaviest defeat in their MLR history. Anthem, meanwhile, are sitting third in the standings after picking up the first two wins in their entire club history. Something has to give in Quincy.
The Lines
Here’s how the books have this one priced up:
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DraftKings: New England -6.5 (-115) | Anthem +6.5 (-125) | 3-Way ML: New England -255, Draw +2200, Anthem +215 | Total: 54.5 (o -120 / u -115)
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Fanatics: New England -6.5 (-125) | Anthem +6.5 (-110) | ML: New England -300, Anthem +225
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Caesars: New England -6.5 (-120) | Anthem +6.5 (-120) | 3-Way ML: New England -340, Tie +1400, Anthem +230
The market is in lockstep on the spread — every book has it pegged at New England -6.5 — but the moneyline tells a more interesting story. The price on the Free Jacks ranges from -255 (DraftKings) to -340 (Caesars), an 85-cent gap. If you’re backing the home favorite straight up, DraftKings is the value. If you’re taking the points, Fanatics’ -110 juice on Anthem +6.5 is the best of the three.
The Champions in Crisis
It is genuinely difficult to overstate how badly New England has started this title defense. The three-time MLR champions have lost all three matches, and the margins have been getting wider, not narrower. In Week 2, they suffered a 43-5 hammering at California — the heaviest defeat in their entire MLR history. Then in Nashville last weekend, Chicago put 50 points on them — the most they’ve ever conceded in a single match. Two franchise-worst records broken in three weeks.
The numbers behind the slide are alarming. New England have scored just 50 points across three games (the fewest in the league), conceded 17 tries (an average of close to six per match), and own a points differential of -64 — the worst in MLR. Last season, the Free Jacks averaged just under three tries conceded per game and had the best defensive record in the competition. The drop-off has been seismic.
There’s also a worrying consistency to how they’ve been losing: they’ve been behind at half-time in every single one of their three matches. Against California they trailed 24-5 at the break. Against Old Glory it was 7-14. Against Chicago the deficit was 33-12 by half-time, with the Hounds banking the try bonus point inside the first 35 minutes. Slow starts have been a death sentence.
Anthem’s Historic Surge
While New England rewrites its record book in the wrong direction, Anthem has been busy rewriting its own — for all the right reasons. Across the previous two seasons, the franchise lost 32 consecutive matches and finished bottom of the Eastern Conference in both 2024 and 2025. That barren run ended in Week 1 of this season when Anthem went to California and won 39-26 — the first victory in club history. Two weeks later they doubled up with a 34-25 win over Seattle for their first home win.
Both wins came with bonus points: six tries against California, four against Seattle. This is a side that has rediscovered how to score in bunches and, more importantly, how to win. They sit third in the standings with two wins, two losses, and a form line that reads W-L-W-L heading into Quincy.
The Wrinkle in Anthem’s Resume
There’s one number that complicates the upset narrative: Anthem’s road record outside this season is dreadful. Before they snapped the streak in California in Week 1, the side had lost 16 consecutive away matches stretching back across two seasons. Veterans Memorial Stadium has historically been a fortress for the Free Jacks, they went 9-1 at home last season, with the only blemish a 17-20 loss to Old Glory in May.
The next three Anthem fixtures are all on the road: New England this week, then Chicago, then Seattle. If they’re going to ride this momentum into a real playoff push, they need to start banking road points against the league’s weaker hosts. The problem is, this Free Jacks side may be wounded — but they’re not strangers to defending home turf.
Head-to-Head: New England’s 3-0 Record
These sides have met three times previously and New England has won all three. The Free Jacks dispatched Anthem 46-13 in Charlotte in March 2024, then 40-7 at this very stadium in June 2024 — a five-try bonus-point romp. Last April it was a 26-6 New England win in Charlotte, with the visitors keeping Anthem off the try line entirely.
A note of caution against leaning too hard on the H2H: those three matches all came when Anthem were in the middle of their 32-match losing streak. This is a different Anthem team now, with confidence and a coaching identity. The historical record is a data point, not a forecast.
The Mitch Wilson Factor
There’s a juicy subplot at the kicking tee. Anthem’s leading scorer from MLR 2025, Mitch Wilson, returned to New England in the offseason. He scored 47 points in 11 appearances for Anthem last year, and his boot was a difference-maker in tight games. New England now have him; Anthem have to find points without him. In a match where the spread is 6.5 — i.e., almost exactly two converted tries — the absence of an experienced goal-kicker on one side and his presence on the other matters more than the casual fan might think.
Set-Piece and Discipline
If New England are going to right the ship, the set-piece needs to function. Against Chicago they lost four of their own lineouts and wobbled at scrum time. They also conceded 14 penalties — the kind of number that puts a struggling defense on the back foot before it has a chance to set.
Anthem’s discipline isn’t pristine either. They conceded 12 penalties of their own to Old Glory last week and are still figuring out how to convert pressure into points — they made 11 visits to the opposition 22 in that game and came away with just two tries. That’s a 18% red zone conversion rate. Against a New England defense that’s been leaking tries, Anthem will need to be sharper when they get there.
Key Players to Watch
New England Free Jacks - Paula Balekana: Top try scorer in MLR 2025 with 15 — equalling the single-season record he set himself in 2023. Has scored in all three losses this season. - Wayne van der Bank: Centre named in the Week 4 Team of the Week despite the Chicago loss. Made 40 metres with ball-in-hand and 12 tackles. - Mitch Wilson: Goal kicker. Knows Anthem’s playbook and has the boot to punish indiscipline.
Anthem RC - Karl Keane: Steady at fly-half, converted both Anthem tries in the Old Glory loss. - Jordan Trainor: Made four offloads in Week 4 — joint-most in MLR. The kind of player who can spring a counter-attack from nothing. - Will Leonard / Conner Mooneyham: Both crossed against Old Glory in the second-half rally that made the final score respectable. Anthem’s go-to attacking points.
The Verdict
This is a fascinating spot. The market has decided that home, history, and quality (eventually) win out — New England -6.5 across the board, ML clustered around -300. That’s a defensible read of a three-time champion against a side with two wins in club history.
But the form says something different. New England have been outscored 100-50 across three weeks. They’ve been behind at half-time in every game. Their defensive record has cratered. Anthem, by contrast, are scoring tries in bunches when they’re locked in. A 6.5-point line implies a one-converted-try margin, give or take. That feels tight given how leaky New England has looked.
The conservative play is to back New England at home and trust the franchise to rediscover itself. The contrarian play is that the Free Jacks are wounded, slow-starting, and potentially heading for a third straight 0-3 nightmare.
Best bet: Anthem +6.5 at Fanatics (-110). The line is the same at all three books but Fanatics offers the best price on the points. If New England flip the switch, they probably win by a converted try — the kind of margin that makes 6.5 a coin flip. If Anthem keep it close or pull off the upset, this cashes comfortably.
For the adventurous: Anthem ML at Caesars (+230) is the highest moneyline price on the visitor across the three books. Given New England’s slow-start trend and Anthem’s confidence, an outright upset isn’t a stretch — and the price rewards the conviction.
Total play: The 54.5 at DraftKings is the only one of the three books posting a number, and it’s worth a look. New England have been in shootouts every week and Anthem score in bursts. Over 54.5 (-120) feels live.
Kickoff: 4:00 PM ET today at Veterans Memorial Stadium, Quincy, MA.
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